Perspectives

Our Open-Weight Bet on American AI Leadership

September 16, 2026

Arcee Emergence years ago backed belief enterprises needed AI built around data goals economics without sacrificing control Since question moved enterprise frontier Open weight models become matter American competitiveness Chinese labs move quickly put capable developers hands domestic remains closed building another path U.S Now 1B+ valuation scaling doubling first company helping build smaller specialized terms happened expanded scope original bet entire 2025 model lineup including 400-billion-parameter Trinity Large approximately 20 million serves evidence frontier-scale open-weight domestically radically different level capital efficiency working Department Energy 17 national laboratories scientific computing extends Arcee's beyond productivity tasks watching Whether ecosystem competes adopting frontier-lab recently joined leaders across industry arguing weights critical leadership expand access competition ownership showing argument looks practice started proving choose performance openness capability Joe Floyd General Partner Read start

Mirage Product Market Fit: The Silent Killer of AI-Native Services Companies

August 13, 2026

Mirage PMF failure mode seeing often AINS companies right now fast revenue growth strong customer retention majority service delivered humans AI happens every time go market faster better cheaper incumbent buyers say yes inflects hire delivery staff meet demand feels call keeps growing platform waiting another human deliver instead investing compounding looks software company gross margins look staffing firm built AI-native services business wrong kind funding founders end make single bad decision made hundred reasonable ones core tension unique simultaneously professional bound clients urgent needs technology must invest building eventually tractable imperatives direct conflict side wins almost paying demanding result relentless pull toward important always responding never curve great leverage flat Venture capital compounds Investors celebrate full picture diagnose Ask question tell getting granular component speed quality macro level automating 40 workflow task specific steps individual handoffs answer danger North Star metrics fundamentally different SaaS product usage proxy value customers ideally touch employees irrelevant need Map step track complete bar finish review needed assign metric person duo businesses doer builder pairing drive report board quarterly nobody owns move ARR per FTE service-delivering generating relative industry baseline least 2.5x creating real watch trend number climb quarter means coming hiring margin calculated honestly lagging indicator 70 command multiples 50 legacy priced cap table catch calculate Include salaries everyone work inference spend goes towards seen exclude first leading third outcome find problem 12 months late takes best worked counterintuitive deliberately stop build portfolio operating rhythm CEO stops selling entirely team builds trains new operators sit top deploys reopens sales staircase ramp uncomfortable maintained low 70s scaling quickly difference yellow line chart depicts path true stakes raise Series good investor recurring double-click want know moved measuring unable questions answered years earlier numbers reveal actually competitive risk crack early dramatically undercut price aggressively advantage mover matter less wait diagnostic infrastructure Define bandwidth ownership visible internally headcount alongside honest fix requires hardest slowing funnel makes goal grow possible enduring high-margin require opposite actions Take updated assessment see currently sits

The Small-Team Advantage

August 6, 2026

AI made teams faster Now design org match startups adopting redesigning company around tools working problem spend days helping best technical founders Bay Area build constraint keep running talent architecture limitation longer writing code feature deployment Instead directing work distributing context making decisions creating feedback loops allow humans operate together effectively shift subtle treat job afterthought going outbuild competitors twice size Talented people differentiator anymore Everyone's hiring pool matters clear direction fast distribution shared tight designed staffed Across portfolio engineers shipping pace possible 18 months ago hard part building software changed verifying correct easier produce real becomes reviewing trusting Agentic handling tasks used require PRs planning sprints reworking large parts codebase starting see comes short common pattern coordination failure decision stalls behind lives someone's head somewhere agent teammate find baton gets dropped system pass cleanly friction compounds everyone moving AI-native services companies face challenge sharper form SaaS exists sell product AINS Every hire workflow handoff either strengthens data flywheel breaks slow sprint shows outcome promised customer go deeper playbook clean case study twenty years spotting patterns early conviction obvious enough act makes individuals productive coordinates productivity leverage exceptional operator finds 5x improvement loses gain ambiguous priorities missing take minutes backs currently generate less revenue per employee non-AI peers organizations built direct mostly tool output environment optimize actually absorb Harper insurance brokerage clearest version seen team brokers underwriting placement end Roughly 11 entire reference average Series today runs 48 trajectory remarkable small stood several worth systems inside CRM support transactional platform voice call-center agents 2 000-carrier matching engine long-range coding unlock integrated operating default concentrated 10 needs judgment in-house labelers feeding validation back looks look show whoever's fastest explicit accessible Strategy live founder's quarterly all-hands exist artifacts anyone written specs structured goals logs neither break units rather big handoffs scoped picked human single sitting acceptance criteria splits smaller overall throughput multiplies changes ongoing projects without asking move infrastructure core side project need measured Quality checks evals learning mechanisms close loop goal behaves self-improving senses decides acts measures adjusts chart shape cheaper role management evolves already staffing differently put percentage points headcount engineering broader tech market structurally sales finance lower translating routing status gathering relaying absorbed new higher coaching prioritization designing become Managers disappear shifts stack Hanover Park instinct applied structure Chris Hladczuk CEO described owning metrics acting product-plus-engineering pod organized functional scale bloat proving illustration bolting onto old profile shifting valuable hires improve raise else Operators ship think different bar great deliberate write track know ones tightening Invest memory alignment protocols office concerns scales ownership targets ceiling floor make everything searchable day access signal operational state probably right feel impossibly producing heavy lifting last scaled adding next leading compound startup employees soon sound outdated servers owns ask turns action

DroneDeploy Didn't Win on Hardware. That's Why Procore Just Paid $845 Million.

July 29, 2026

robotics underlying technology hardest part hard assembly taking something works demo making work job site day customer betting real money Today Procore announced acquiring DroneDeploy 845 million milestone payoff decade world-class drones front-row seat journey Eighteen months Emergence led DroneDeploy's Series 2015 built drone kids mostly curiosity actually take long see machines going remain hobbyist toys business maps monitors physical space obvious need accurate timely inexpensive aerial data conviction founders Jono Millin Mike Winn Nick Pilkington company pre-revenue took board partner Jake Saper came active observer stayed close ever since Software First started commercial companies decided build full-stack solution included hardware different approach maker plug rode industry's falling costs instead competing large makers put energy time educating market helped businesses understand value worked closely customers programs advantage new became robots deployed scale across industries 2017 roughly years initial investment began six-figure deals enterprise largest construction agriculture growing number verticals regularly use mission-critical operations AI added layer capabilities spent accumulating massive dataset job-site images video captured eventually ground-based used train models calculating percentage project completed safety hazard appeared facility process superintendent hours manual walkthroughs now takes minutes platform dramatically valuable almost overnight Learnings founded ago current AI-powered era However newer learn success particularly worth mentioning assembler win building better won spending field foremen engineers never showing single flight tell already knew run unglamorous customer-by-customer education turned interesting piece ENR 400 contractor purchase order Second scaled deployment early nearly capturing imagery model read automatically vision finally good enough archive sitting reason ship progress-tracking safety-flagging products starting zero Nobody builds shows believed earlier matter Third treat ecosystem play default set foundation robot systems integrate Fluency partners central acquirer Congratulations Team wave playbook holds whole testament founding right headed honor

Robotics’ Missing Piece: Assembly Required

July 27, 2026

Robot costs collapsing capability compounding scarce company turns pieces product market adopt spring 1961 two-ton hydraulic arm called Unimate went work GM plant outside Trenton New Jersey pulled hot die castings press first industrial ever deployed came promise Machines take dull dirty dangerous happen early days robotics part peers expensive relative labor aimed replace 2015 welding cost roughly half year's salary welder replacing robots made relatively small dent manufacturing workforce making useful months custom integration turned 25 000 six-figure deployment tooling added hardware gotten cheaper years never last decade shifted foundation model policies make faster less train deploy Physical Intelligence investors solutions powered PI's models set rather second EV industry spent decades scaling motors batteries sensors accidentally built lower-cost supply chain along average 46 2010 2022 23 time continued climb U.S worker 46.30 hour fully loaded number compounds 3-4 year gone Compare curve cross right now falling task Provided keep improving continues trend toward lower capable continue economic sense companies across greater industries consider deploying Components markets However used create solution end customer use build customers assemblers mission critical next generation Microprocessors put computer every desk Compaq Microsoft Commodity servers give corporations cloud Amazon turning racks something CIO sign Component makers possibility turn reap reward assembler's unglamorous must pick narrow enough master Fit workflow already runs instead asking rebuild around Ensure safe Win manager foreman crew standing machine Answer phone fails 2 a.m hard seen success assembly led DroneDeploy's Series drone becoming missing software combined aerial photos superintendent actually act DroneDeploy drones quietly became scale verticals including construction energy public safety Bedrock uses logic today's stack hire operators contractor scrap working fleet unproven retrofits autonomy onto excavators contractors fits inside rules govern jobsite sells empty seats cases mattered alone sold nothing portfolio hundreds met three challenges come 1 Unit economics arrives look ugly truly autonomous deployments lean teleoperation on-site babysitting means paying humans supervise supposed kickstart data flywheel Waymo Ambi edge using teleoperated supervised generate steadily reduced human oversight needed rigorously planned run cash Know milestones unlock raise need interventions per trending teleoperator rising lighthouse expanding five pilots idling improve math avoid buying sits atop iron takes largest capital business closer vertical installed start third shift system headline pitch hear constantly 24-hour operation discover ready else customer's maintenance staff overnight materials handler feeding line claim pursue address automation processes Theoretically sufficient level accuracy reliability reached ten together 95 individual robotic systems hit today line's uptime falls 59 value proposition design whole beginning 3 compute decision often wait round trip center Latency unusable labs solving action chunking policy predicts sequence moves inference call technique originated Stanford's ALOHA research since become standard practice field distilled on-device let modest onboard chip big draws power creates operational treat tethering battery swaps charging windows decisions pilot Seeking Unimate's mundane took sixty-five due reason cheap specific job finally changing needs develop magical next-generation robot-powered Building important Emergence aim partner founders assembling talk Kevin Spain General investor

Why We Signed an Industry-Wide Letter on Open Weights

July 24, 2026

long believed valuable intelligence inside company unique Earlier year called advantage proprietary learning loops seeded people strengthened every interaction Open weights make ownership real model's core parameters public team run instead renting access Costs come time sensitive data stay company's walls founder fine-tune system specific problem front rather generic API built wide field options closed worth protecting right models choose precisely match tool task harder provider become chokepoint model becomes auditable see reasons trust Commoditize protect build top always thesis owns stack blindsided vendor quietly changes pricing terms overnight bet autonomy founders closest ones solve go fine invest outcomes single architecture backing ecosystem choice stronger whole industry gets Emergence signed letter Microsoft today follows American AI Leadership 1980s early open-source software pioneers challenged prevailing belief advance companies kept tight control code movement pushed transparent developers around world study modify improve developed community now supports internet underlies systems used world's largest technology U.S military federal agencies conducting scienti research cybersecurity critical missions source lower cost created shared foundation knowledge generations engineers entrepreneurs institutional sovereignty United States faces similar arti cial judged frontier whether builds strong diffuses sector essential creating opportunities innovation prosperity across country requires expanding encouraging competition robust application layers giving Americans greater rely Open-weight anyone download inspect infrastructure important part advanced accessible adaptable widely available expand economy Startups established businesses universities institutions without training scratch paying frontier-model prices let organization job reserving frontier-scale capability genuine problems running efficient specialized everywhere else discipline economically sustainable use scales billions everyday tasks America wins era diffusing workflows factories hospitals farms classrooms main street strengthen keeps gains broadly concentrated hands allowing organizations adapt deploy create rivalry among cloud chips applications services spurs drives distributes benefits give customers want know locked lose capabilities weight help provide assurance evaluate needs wherever business requirements demand value allow self-improving accumulated drive sure carry distinct risks released beyond original developer's modified versions difficult trace reverse response risk prohibit attackers defenders need comparable detect simulate respond emerging threats broaden defensive increase transparency vulnerabilities discovered remediated teams fact openness paths safety security Relying solely inherently safe breached misused fail ways outsiders concentrating behind small number compounds results points failure weakens leaves providers hand broad researchers examine behavior identify develop safeguards demonstrated secure obscurity depend ability test society relies allows rigorous benchmarking evaluation red teaming protections tied harms assuming safer default foregone conclusion Policymakers opportunity act includes compute investing assets datasets tools frameworks keeping plural avoiding premature restrictions stifle overseas measures must look sovereign shaping careful conflate legitimate model-development techniques misappropriation Distillation practice using outputs train another technique improvement validation reflects tradition building upon improving existing technologies helped since rise contrast unlawful efforts extract raise concerns addressed targeted legal commercial sweeping play role age choices extend technological mitigate ensure extraordinary future lead

AI-Native Support for One of Life’s Hardest Processes

July 16, 2026

people think probate forced upon someone passes families expect grief anticipate administrative legal burden follows forms missing documents court requirements financial accounts family coordination decisions wait take year cost tens thousands dollars middle members suddenly responsible understanding organizing managing entire estate moments demand trusted guidance wealth management wedge studied industry ways AI reshape kept circling back trust market comes product Clients rarely switch managers relationship established making customer acquisition slow expensive shortcuts next winning entrants need real reason present major made settlement reasons start largest intergenerational transfer history roughly 84 trillion expected change hands coming decades Assets move current process antiquated fragmented confusing historically handled attorneys reserved institutions higher-net-worth estates leaves unattractive options go alone hire help EverSettled stood earns helping work already front customers begins immediate value sales pitch Emergence proud lead 5M seed round alongside Entrepreneurs First Seedcamp Bridge Ventures Alumni several angel investors AI-native building operating service navigate admin death guides users administration inheritance structured document support squarely fits category call Services companies deliver outcome using core regulated high-stakes offline changing squeezing old model taking full rebuilding around changes serve obvious place build always top 10 larger wills trusts high-touch ultimately higher ROI focused remaining 90 settle priced meaningful changed navigating today 50s 60s spent adult lives modern technology find stuck feel closer DMV digital products use every day delicate strange difficult space discussing money responsibility loss time member legally Another left grieving differently Everyone needs clarity matters involved EverSettled's Sage assistant executors answers questions 2am simplifies processes coordinates tasks trained side dynamics surface collide line keep asking information needed forward show form gets filled sensitive requires founding team understands human stakes technical demands writing code months fiduciaries paralegals understand breaks CEO Arum Kempster lived problem served executor father's took 27 later grandfather's felt confusion invisible labor firsthand brings rare context national policy growth go-to-market roles consumer startups met combination experience insight intensity walk walls make happen CTO Jacob Effenberger foundation built implemented industries including defense oil gas accuracy reliability matter seriousness involves personal system useful careful trustworthy beginning brand Together turn seen emerge key life stages pregnancy fertility menopause universal destination aftermath void looking fill Settling never simple feels ready leave pay designed wealthiest third path everyday moment fix become name remember showed hardest weeks earned everything company set

Breaking Open the AI Cost Curve

July 1, 2026

Together AI Emergence first invested 2023 enterprises wanted train run models terms existing stack fragmented expensive dependent closed systems view future enterprise built single model provider Companies use concert customized job hand building platform Today applications moving core workflows deploying agents write code resolve customer issues analyze documents automate tasks across business usage grows cost carving efficient path open custom frontier performance greater control better economics company announced 800M Series 8.3B valuation proud continue support doubling now serves thousands paying customers including world's fastest-growing Cursor Cognition Decagon ElevenLabs Suno Annual bookings crossed 1.15B last quarter seeing 6x 60x savings compared closed-model pricing equal watching Whether limits next wave adoption weaving daily processes risk ration sacrifice margins Scaling without tradeoff requires infrastructure makes high-quality economically sustainable positioned become production open-source team research depth traction execution velocity lead market's phase Joe Floyd General Partner Read investment

Beyond Benchmarks 2026: Five Data Sets Grounded in the Real World

June 26, 2026

Every founder investor 2026 already working hypothesis AI concentrating capital leaning teams reshaping gets funded seen anecdotes felt firsthand directional story surprise 2026's Beyond Benchmarks designed simply confirm know useful data kind shows intuition wrong next year's report Emergence partnered Carta Ashby Pave Stackpack Standard Metrics bring together proprietary thousands operating companies survey sentiment Actual cap tables software spend comp decisions hiring outcomes bringing view reveals beneath surface findings consensus Others genuinely biggest takeaways delivering efficiency gains expected Across segment non-AI generate revenue per employee Today remains investment productivity changing businesses measure success longer enough business Founders need actually inside moment transition adapt fastest define decade goal help make better build hire invest compete AI-native economy full five concrete actions surprising perspective patterns telling download Read